Research

This study examines whether changes in completed cohort fertility (CFR) among Hungarian women born between 1920 and 1982 were driven by shifts in educational composition or by changes in fertility within educational groups. Using data from six full, individual level population censuses (1970, 1980, 1990, 2001, 2011, and 2022) and Kitagawa’s decomposition method, changes in CFR are decomposed into indirect (structural, reflecting educational composition) and direct (rate, reflecting education-specific fertility) components and analysed across three broad birth cohorts: women born in 1935–1959, 1960–1969, and 1970–1982. Structural effects dominated CFR change in the pre-transition cohort, while changes within educational groups (rate effects) dominated in the post-transition cohort, while both were small and offsetting in the transition cohort (1960–1969). Across cohorts, primary-educated women made the largest contribution to CFR decline due to their shrinking population share. Parity-specific decomposition shows that lower childlessness and second births supported CFR in the pre-transition cohort, whereas rising childlessness and declining second births reduced CFR in the post-transition cohort. In the transition cohort, parity effects were modest and partly offsetting. Our data prove that both educational expansion and fertility change within educational groups played a role in the decline of cohort completed fertility of women born between 1920 and 1982. However, women whose main childbearing years occurred during the transition period differ from those in the socialist era, due to the varying impact of childlessness and parity 2 on CFR change. Compared to post-transition women, the only distinction lies in the effect of parity 1 on CFR change. Our findings reveal a generational shift in how education and fertility interacted in Hungary across seven decades. Moreover, our study highlights the importance of both structural and within-group mechanisms and contributes to a more comprehensive understanding of the interplay between education and fertility during societal change. Keywords: cohort fertility, educational expansion, decomposition, parity

Abstract This paper examines the association between national identity, defined as individuals’ cognitive and emotional attachment to the nation, and fertility intentions. A form of social identity, national identity shapes everyday interactions and choices, and individuals with a strong national identity are more likely to adjust their behavior and to follow the expressed or inferred norms for the “good of the nation.” This study argues that a stronger national identity results in fertility intentions that are aligned with the nation's needs (whether higher or lower fertility) through its effects on personal attitudes, conformity to childbearing norms and expectations, and perceived control over fertility. The findings indicate that in a pronatalist context where higher fertility is actively encouraged by the nation, a stronger national identity is associated with a lower probability of intending to remain childless and a higher probability of intending to have two or more children, with variation by age, gender, and relationship status—highlighting national identity as an important factor when considering fertility‐related decisions.