Humanity is approaching its peak.

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The state

Countries below replacement fertility
101 of 196
latest estimate below 2.1 births per woman · release 2026.08.3
World population, projected peak
2084
10.29B · medium projection · release 2026.08.3

World total fertility rate, 1950–2100

Worldreplacement1950198020102040207021002.003.004.005.00

un-wpp · un-wpp/2024 · release 2026.08.3

CSV

The record

Every UN revision projected world population for 2050 and 2100 a little differently. We keep every version.

World population, 2050/2100 by revision

9.31B20109.55B10.85B20129.73B20159.77B20179.74B10.88B20199.71B10.35B20229.66B10.18Bcurrent2050210002B4B6B8B10B

un-wpp (archival revisions) · multiple · release 2026.08.3

CSV
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The watch

Papers, preprints, data releases, and policy documents, gathered daily.

AI-generated summary

Using 41 years of administrative longitudinal data (1981–2021), this study examines earnings assimilation trends for U.S. immigrants, distinguishing between return migrants and permanent stayers. It finds that one-fifth to one-third of immigrants return migrate within 10 years, return migrants have similar entry earnings but slower growth than permanent migrants, and since the mid-1990s permanent immigrants' earnings have converged relatively quickly with native-born earnings, unlike earlier cohorts. The paper also discusses how changes in immigrant cohort quality and selective return migration affect whether cross-sectional data over- or underestimate true earnings assimilation.

Abstract
In this paper, we characterize trends in the earnings assimilation of immigrant workers from 1981 to 2021. We use administrative longitudinal data that contain the earnings of workers beginning in their first year of residence in the United States and in each year thereafter, allowing us to identify immigrants who eventually leave the United States (referred to here as return migrants). We use those data to produce the first examination of trends in earnings assimilation over a 41-year period and to estimate earnings assimilation separately for return migrants versus those who stay in the United States. We document several new facts about immigrants who arrived between 1981 to 2010. First, roughly one-fifth to one-third of immigrants return migrate from the United States within 10 years after arrival. Second, return migrants have entry earnings similar to those of permanent migrants but experience slower rates of earnings growth. Third, earnings assimilation occurs relatively quickly for cohorts arriving since the mid-1990s: The earnings of permanent immigrants converge, or come close to converging, with those of native-born people within 10 years after arrival. Migrants from earlier arrival cohorts experience significant earnings growth but generally do not converge to that of the native born. We discuss how changes in the labor market quality of immigrant cohorts (measured by their relative earnings upon entry) and selective return migration play an important role in determining whether repeated cross-sectional data over- or underestimate earnings assimilation.
AI-generated summary

This study uses an overlapping generations model to examine how property tax policy affects housing allocation between young and elderly homeowners. It finds that low property taxes reinforce elderly homeowner lock-in, and that raising California's property taxes to Texas levels would increase young homeownership while decreasing elderly homeownership through both price capitalization and higher holding costs. The analysis also shows that removing step-up basis provisions similarly reduces elderly homeownership, indicating that bequest tax advantages help sustain elderly housing tenure.

Abstract
Low property taxes amplify lock-in among elderly homeowners, limiting housing access for young families. Raising them reallocates housing toward the young through two channels: capitalization into lower prices reduces required downpayments for financially constrained buyers, a form of embedded leverage, while higher tax obligations raise holding costs for older owners. In our overlapping generations model, raising California’s property taxes to Texas levels increases young homeownership while decreasing elderly homeownership. Removing step-up basis also lowers elderly homeownership, suggesting their tenure is sustained by bequest tax advantages. The tax treatment of housing shapes housing allocation across generations.
AI-generated summary

Using Swedish registry data, this study finds significant intergenerational transmission of fertility problems, with daughters and sons of parents who experienced such difficulties being 19.4% and 13.5% more likely, respectively, to face fertility issues themselves, regardless of parental socioeconomic status. Comparisons between biological and adopted children suggest this transmission stems from biological or other inherited factors rather than family awareness, and while assisted reproductive technology success is unrelated to parental background, past fertility difficulties are linked to higher medical costs and increased divorce likelihood.

Abstract
This study examines the persistence of fertility-related health problems across generations within the same family, and the utilization of assisted reproductive technologies (ART). Using comprehensive Swedish registry data, we document significant intergenerational transmission of fertility difficulties for both daughters and sons, independent of parental socioeconomic status. Daughters whose parents reported such problems are 2.6 percentage points, or 19.4 percent, more likely to experience fertility problems themselves. Sons whose parents reported fertility difficulties experience a 1.7 percentage point, or 13.5 percent, increase. These associations persist across alternative measures and samples. Comparing biological and adopted children raised in the same households, we find that this phenomenon is unlikely to be driven by family awareness of fertility issues, pointing to biological and other factors that biological children share with their parents but adopted children do not. Medical technology works equally well for those who use it, and we find no significant association between the success of advanced fertility treatments and parental backgrounds. However, past generations’ fertility difficulties are associated both with higher medical expenses and with social costs such as increased likelihood of divorce.
AI-generated summary

This study uses harmonised Generations and Gender Survey data across nine European countries to compare relationship trajectories of unions formed via online dating versus other means, examining dissolution, marriage, childbearing, satisfaction, and break-up consideration. Results show country-specific patterns, with higher dissolution hazards in Austria, Estonia, and Croatia, lower in Germany, and generally lower marriage and shared childbearing among online-dating unions (notably in Croatia and the UK), while relationship quality differences are less pronounced. The findings indicate that online dating's association with relationships is more about institutionalisation and family formation than uniform quality differences, and no consistent pan-European pattern emerges.

Abstract
This article examines whether unions formed through online dating differ from other unions in relationship trajectories across nine European countries. Using harmonised Generations and Gender Survey data, I estimate country-specific survival and current-union models for union dissolution, marriage, shared biological childbearing, relationship satisfaction, and break-up consideration. Adjusted dissolution hazards are higher in Austria, Estonia, and Croatia, lower in Germany, and not significant elsewhere or among recent unions. Among surviving unions, online dating is more often associated with lower marriage and shared childbearing, especially in Croatia and the United Kingdom, than with poorer relationship quality. Overall, online dating appears more strongly associated with how unions are institutionalised and converted into family life and the findings do not support the idea of a uniform pan-European relationship difference associated with online dating.
Data releaseeurostat · 8/14/2026
AI-generated summary

This dataset provides child and youth population figures as of January 1, broken down by sex and age. It has been updated to reflect the most current available data.

Abstract
Child and youth population on 1 January by sex and age
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Latest release notes

2026.08.3
Published 8/17/2026

No notes provided for this release.

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