Accuracy
How successive UN World Population Prospects revisions projected world population versus what materialized -- scored release over release, in the platform’s own versioned numbers.
Milestone walk
World population projected for 2050 and 2100, one step per revision, in publication order.
Bias, by revision and horizon
Total fertility rate. Positive mean bias: the revision’s projected TFR came in above what materialized (over-projected). Negative: under-projected.
| Revision | Horizon (years) | Mean bias | MAPE | Over-projected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 1-5 | -0.098 | 10.0% | 68.8% |
| 2010 | 6-10 | -0.043 | 13.7% | 71.9% |
| 2010 | 11-15 | +0.037 | 18.9% | 85.4% |
| 2012 | 1-5 | -0.014 | 7.6% | 69.1% |
| 2012 | 6-10 | +0.033 | 11.5% | 77.3% |
| 2012 | 11-15 | +0.111 | 16.7% | 88.7% |
| 2015 | 1-5 | +0.038 | 9.9% | 73.2% |
| 2015 | 6-10 | +0.111 | 15.0% | 86.6% |
| 2017 | 1-5 | +0.045 | 9.1% | 78.4% |
| 2017 | 6-10 | +0.118 | 14.3% | 83.5% |
| 2019 | 1-5 | +0.108 | 12.0% | 86.6% |
| 2022 | 1-5 | +0.051 | 6.2% | 72.9% |
release 2026.08.3
Country probe
Pick a country to compare its actual total fertility rate against what each revision projected.
Select up to 2 a country (0/2 selected).