Research chronicle

Thursday, 12 March 2026 - 10:00am Overview Africa remains the youngest region in the world. According to the 2024 Revision of the World Population Prospects, average life expectancy at birth in Africa is approximately 64 years, below the global average. Fertility levels remain comparatively high in many countries, and pressing development priorities including poverty reduction, employment, health access and education, continue to shape national agendas.  At the same time, a quieter demographic shift is underway. Africa is undergoing a demographic transition marked by a steadily growing older population. While Sub-Saharan Africa remains at an earlier stage of ageing and Northern Africa at an intermediate stage, both sub-regions are projected to experience the fastest growth in the number of older persons globally over the next three decades.  The implications cut across multiple policy areas such as labour markets, informal employment, agriculture, income security, health systems, care arrangements and urban planning. Informal employment remains widespread, shaping income security in later life. Social protection coverage for older persons is expanding in several countries but remains uneven. Health systems are navigating a complex epidemiological landscape, addressing communicable diseases alongside a growing burden of non-communicable conditions.  In this context, ageing in Africa cannot be viewed in isolation. It intersects with employment, gender equality, disability inclusion, rural livelihoods, urbanization and human rights. It calls for informed, forward-looking policy dialogue, not because Africa is becoming “old,” but because demographic realities are evolving in ways that warrant attention.  The moment therefore calls for dialogue grounded in demographic evidence, aligned with continental and global frameworks, and attentive to the well-being, human rights and dignity of older persons.  Taking place at the margins of the seventieth session of the Commission on the Status of Women (CSW70), this event follows the Ministerial Round Table on accelerating the achievement of gender equality by addressing the empowerment of all older women, convened on 11 March. Building on that exchange, it brings forward demographic evidence and policy perspectives from across Africa, extending the discussion through a focused regional lens. In doing so, it aims to help translate commitments into context-responsive approaches and to contribute substantively to CSW70 deliberations on advancing the empowerment, rights and dignity of older women.  The session will serve as an awareness-raising and dialogue platform on the implications of demographic ageing in Africa. It will provide a timely opportunity to situate ageing within Africa’s broader development agenda and to highlight the ongoing fifth review and appraisal of the Madrid Plan of Action.  As an initial step, the event seeks to elevate visibility, strengthen shared understanding and lay the groundwork for future Pan-Africa Dialogue Series on Ageing and Development 2026.    Documents Concept note Flyer   Organization of work Thursday, 12 March 2026 10.00 am - 12.00 pm Video recording Welcome Amal Abou Rafeh, Chief of the Programme on Ageing, DESA Opening remarks Olubusayo Akinola, Head of Social Welfare, Drug Control and Crime Prevention Division, HHS, African Union Panel Discussion moderated by : Robin Fenley, Executive Committee, NGO Committee on Ageing in New York  Yumiko Kamiya, Focal Point on Ageing in DESA Population Division:  Latest demographic evidence from the 2024 World Population Prospects, including trends in ageing in Africa, analysis of living arrangements, and insights on the situation of older women and their policy implications .  Vijeth Iyengar, Director of Global Ageing at AARP:  Reflections from AARP’s recent international publication “The Journal”, highlighting in-depth exploration of two sub-Saharan African countries, Kenya and Tanzania, including breakthrough age related policies and practices emerging from East Africa .  Thiago Hérick de Sá, Technical Officer, WHO specializing in age-friendly environments:  Overview of WHO’s Age-Friendly Cities and Communities Network, including emerging engagement in the African region and upcoming Third Congress of Age-friendly Cities and Communities in Spain .  Dorothea Schmidt-Klau, Employment, Labour Markets and Youth Branch, ILO:  Perspectives on ageing and labour  markets in Africa, with a focus on informality, agriculture and the implications of demographic change for employment and productivity .  Rigbe Gebrehawaria Hagos, Human Rights Expert and Disability Rights Advocate, Ethiopia: Lived realities of older persons and persons with disabilities in Africa, and perspectives on State reporting under the African Protocol . Q&A    Closing remarks Reflections and Closing by moderator.     Categories:  Age distribution

Nonmarital fertility is an increasingly important feature of fertility change in Sub- Saharan Africa. In Kenya, urbanization and expanded female education are reshaping fertility patterns. Despite this, however, evidence on the trends and correlates of nonmarital fertility remains limited. This study addresses this gap. The analysis draws on a pooledsample of 26,345 never-marriedwomen aged15–49 from the 2008–09, 2014, and 2022 Kenya Demographic and Health Surveys. Descriptive statistics were used to examine prevalence and trends, while logistic regression identified key correlates. The results indicate that nonmarital fertility increased from 29.9% in 2008–09 to 35.7% in 2022, representing a rise of 5.8 percentage points. The increase was more pronounced among urban women, those with primary or higher education, and residents of Nairobi, Eastern, and Central regions. In contrast, declines were observed among Muslim women and those in Nyanza and Northeastern regions. Nonmarital fertility was significantly associated with age, cohabitation, education, household wealth, employment status, unmet need for family planning, religion, place of residence, region, and survey period. In conclusion, nonmarital fertility in Kenya is rising amid delayed marriage and unequal access to reproductive health services. Policy responses should expand youth-friendly contraception, strengthen girls’ education, and target structural inequalities—especially among adolescents and unmarried women in high-prevalence and informal urban settings—while supporting context-specific interventions and further research on employment and regional disparities.

In the absence of complete civil registration and vital statistics, Health and Demographic Surveillance Systems (HDSSs) are important sources of population-based data throughout sub-Saharan Africa. However, HDSS data on the vital status of newborns are often unreliable due to omission of those who were born and died between two rounds of data collection and are therefore never enumerated. This study investigates whether pregnancy registration improves estimation of under-five mortality (U5M) in three HDSSs in The Gambia, Kenya, and South Africa. We find that mortality is higher for children whose mother's pregnancy was observed than for children who were first registered after birth. Cox proportional hazards models with inverse probability weights further suggest that this difference is probably due to improved ascertainment of deaths in pregnancy cohorts and unlikely to be driven by a selection effect. These results highlight the importance of pregnancy registration in HDSSs for the estimation of U5M.