Italy
Population projection
What forecasters project
Each forecaster’s central projection for Italy, alongside earlier UN revisions. The newest vintage from each forecaster is shown; older revisions are in the legend.
Population: forecasters and earlier UN revisions
5 series: UN 2024 (2000–2100, latest 35M, projected); Census 2025 (2024–2100, latest 62M, projected); IHME 2020 (2017–2100, latest 31M, projected); UN 2022 (2021–2100, latest 37M, projected); WIC 2023 (2020–2100, latest 48M, projected).
| Revision | 2050 | 2100 |
|---|---|---|
| UN 2010 | 59.2M | — |
| UN 2012 | 60.0M | 54.6M |
| WIC 2013 | 61.1M | 52.5M |
| UN 2015 | 56.5M | — |
| UN 2017 | 55.1M | — |
| WIC 2018 | 55.3M | 50.7M |
| UN 2019 | 54.4M | 40.0M |
| IHME 2020 | 52.2M | 30.5M |
| UN 2022 | 52.3M | 36.9M |
| WIC 2023 | 55.9M | 47.9M |
| Census 2025 | 61.0M | 61.9M |
| UN 2024 (current) | 51.9M | 35.4M |
Revisions with no 2050 or 2100 value for Italy are not listed.
Total fertility rate: forecasters and earlier UN revisions
5 series: UN 2024 (2000–2100, latest 1.48, projected); Census 2025 (2024–2100, latest 1.70, projected); IHME 2020 (2017–2100, latest 1.23, projected); UN 2022 (2021–2100, latest 1.52, projected); WIC 2023 (2015–2095, latest 1.45, projected).
| Revision | 2050 | 2100 |
|---|---|---|
| WIC 2013 | 1.60 | — |
| WIC 2018 | 1.61 | — |
| IHME 2020 | 1.32 | 1.23 |
| UN 2022 | 1.44 | 1.52 |
| WIC 2023 | 1.48 | — |
| Census 2025 | 1.70 | 1.70 |
| UN 2024 (current) | 1.35 | 1.48 |
Revisions with no 2050 or 2100 value for Italy are not listed. UN revisions from 2010 to 2019 publish fertility as five-year period averages (e.g. 2045–2050), with no single-year value; their paths are in the chart above. Wittgenstein Centre values are five-year period averages shown at the period's first year (2050 = 2050–2055).
Sources, licenses, and attribution for every forecaster are listed in the methodology.