Kenya
Population projection
What forecasters project
Each forecaster’s central projection for Kenya, alongside earlier UN revisions. The newest vintage from each forecaster is shown; older revisions are in the legend.
Population: forecasters and earlier UN revisions
5 series: UN 2024 (2000–2100, latest 104M, projected); Census 2025 (2024–2100, latest 122M, projected); IHME 2020 (2017–2100, latest 74M, projected); UN 2022 (2021–2100, latest 113M, projected); WIC 2023 (2020–2100, latest 99M, projected).
| Revision | 2050 | 2100 |
|---|---|---|
| UN 2010 | 96.9M | — |
| UN 2012 | 97.2M | 160M |
| WIC 2013 | 79.9M | 98.3M |
| UN 2015 | 95.5M | — |
| UN 2017 | 95.5M | — |
| WIC 2018 | 90.7M | 114M |
| UN 2019 | 91.6M | 125M |
| IHME 2020 | 77.7M | 74.1M |
| UN 2022 | 85.2M | 113M |
| WIC 2023 | 83.1M | 99.1M |
| Census 2025 | 85.4M | 122M |
| UN 2024 (current) | 83.6M | 104M |
Revisions with no 2050 or 2100 value for Kenya are not listed.
Total fertility rate: forecasters and earlier UN revisions
5 series: UN 2024 (2000–2100, latest 1.84, projected); Census 2025 (2024–2100, latest 1.70, projected); IHME 2020 (2017–2100, latest 1.59, projected); UN 2022 (2021–2100, latest 1.84, projected); WIC 2023 (2015–2095, latest 1.66, projected).
| Revision | 2050 | 2100 |
|---|---|---|
| WIC 2013 | 2.20 | — |
| WIC 2018 | 2.22 | — |
| IHME 2020 | 1.75 | 1.59 |
| UN 2022 | 2.35 | 1.84 |
| WIC 2023 | 2.17 | — |
| Census 2025 | 2.23 | 1.70 |
| UN 2024 (current) | 2.36 | 1.84 |
Revisions with no 2050 or 2100 value for Kenya are not listed. UN revisions from 2010 to 2019 publish fertility as five-year period averages (e.g. 2045–2050), with no single-year value; their paths are in the chart above. Wittgenstein Centre values are five-year period averages shown at the period's first year (2050 = 2050–2055).
Sources, licenses, and attribution for every forecaster are listed in the methodology.