Samoa
Population projection
What forecasters project
Each forecaster’s central projection for Samoa, alongside earlier UN revisions. The newest vintage from each forecaster is shown; older revisions are in the legend.
Population: forecasters and earlier UN revisions
5 series: UN 2024 (2000–2100, latest 383.6k, projected); Census 2025 (2024–2100, latest 274.1k, projected); IHME 2020 (2017–2100, latest 1.1M, projected); UN 2022 (2021–2100, latest 441.2k, projected); WIC 2023 (2020–2100, latest 278.4k, projected).
| Revision | 2050 | 2100 |
|---|---|---|
| UN 2010 | 219k | — |
| UN 2012 | 242k | 363k |
| WIC 2013 | 162k | 120k |
| UN 2015 | 241k | — |
| UN 2017 | 243k | — |
| WIC 2018 | 191k | 93.9k |
| UN 2019 | 267k | 310k |
| IHME 2020 | 372k | 1.06M |
| UN 2022 | 320k | 441k |
| WIC 2023 | 270k | 278k |
| Census 2025 | 247k | 274k |
| UN 2024 (current) | 273k | 384k |
Revisions with no 2050 or 2100 value for Samoa are not listed.
Total fertility rate: forecasters and earlier UN revisions
5 series: UN 2024 (2000–2100, latest 2.06, projected); Census 2025 (2024–2100, latest 1.70, projected); IHME 2020 (2017–2100, latest 4.47, projected); UN 2022 (2021–2100, latest 2.01, projected); WIC 2023 (2015–2095, latest 2.00, projected).
| Revision | 2050 | 2100 |
|---|---|---|
| WIC 2013 | 1.94 | — |
| WIC 2018 | 1.92 | — |
| IHME 2020 | 5.07 | 4.47 |
| UN 2022 | 2.83 | 2.01 |
| WIC 2023 | 2.60 | — |
| Census 2025 | 2.01 | 1.70 |
| UN 2024 (current) | 2.86 | 2.06 |
Revisions with no 2050 or 2100 value for Samoa are not listed. UN revisions from 2010 to 2019 publish fertility as five-year period averages (e.g. 2045–2050), with no single-year value; their paths are in the chart above. Wittgenstein Centre values are five-year period averages shown at the period's first year (2050 = 2050–2055).
Sources, licenses, and attribution for every forecaster are listed in the methodology.