Tonga
Population projection
What forecasters project
Each forecaster’s central projection for Tonga, alongside earlier UN revisions. The newest vintage from each forecaster is shown; older revisions are in the legend.
Population: forecasters and earlier UN revisions
5 series: UN 2024 (2000–2100, latest 117.9k, projected); Census 2025 (2024–2100, latest 88.5k, projected); IHME 2020 (2017–2100, latest 305.2k, projected); UN 2022 (2021–2100, latest 129.9k, projected); WIC 2023 (2020–2100, latest 104.2k, projected).
| Revision | 2050 | 2100 |
|---|---|---|
| UN 2010 | 138k | — |
| UN 2012 | 140k | 203k |
| WIC 2013 | 103k | 80.6k |
| UN 2015 | 140k | — |
| UN 2017 | 140k | — |
| WIC 2018 | 101k | 48.8k |
| UN 2019 | 134k | 138k |
| IHME 2020 | 173k | 305k |
| UN 2022 | 131k | 130k |
| WIC 2023 | 115k | 104k |
| Census 2025 | 90.2k | 88.5k |
| UN 2024 (current) | 105k | 118k |
Revisions with no 2050 or 2100 value for Tonga are not listed.
Total fertility rate: forecasters and earlier UN revisions
5 series: UN 2024 (2000–2100, latest 1.93, projected); Census 2025 (2024–2100, latest 1.70, projected); IHME 2020 (2017–2100, latest 2.62, projected); UN 2022 (2021–2100, latest 1.94, projected); WIC 2023 (2015–2095, latest 2.01, projected).
| Revision | 2050 | 2100 |
|---|---|---|
| WIC 2013 | 1.94 | — |
| WIC 2018 | 1.93 | — |
| IHME 2020 | 2.82 | 2.62 |
| UN 2022 | 2.52 | 1.94 |
| WIC 2023 | 2.29 | — |
| Census 2025 | 2.06 | 1.70 |
| UN 2024 (current) | 2.45 | 1.93 |
Revisions with no 2050 or 2100 value for Tonga are not listed. UN revisions from 2010 to 2019 publish fertility as five-year period averages (e.g. 2045–2050), with no single-year value; their paths are in the chart above. Wittgenstein Centre values are five-year period averages shown at the period's first year (2050 = 2050–2055).
Sources, licenses, and attribution for every forecaster are listed in the methodology.