Northern America
Latest estimates · UN 2024
Northern America, as the UN Population Division groups countries (location code 905).
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Research
AI summaryThis study examines how childlessness contributes to changes in cohort fertility, comparing trends across countries in Europe, East Asia, and North America. It offers a cross-national perspective on the relationship between rising or falling childlessness and overall cohort fertility patterns in these regions.
Abstract
FindingThe role of childlessness in changes in cohort fertility: Cross-national comparisons of countries in Europe, East Asia, and North America
AI summaryThis study constructs the first global dataset of cohort fertility estimates and projections for women born between 1935 and 2055, using World Population Prospects 2024 data transformed via Lexis triangle/parallelogram methods consistent with the Human Fertility Database. The analysis shows cohort fertility declines more gradually than period fertility, with Europe and Northern America reaching replacement-level cohort fertility by the 1946 cohort, sub-Saharan Africa projected to stay above 2.3 births per woman for the 2055 cohort, and many low-fertility countries expected to fall below 1.5 births for the 1983 cohort. The findings emphasize the greater stability of cohort measures over period indicators for understanding long-term fertility trends and informing policy.
Abstract
Abstract This study presents the first global dataset of fertility estimates and projections for cohorts of women born between 1935 and 2055. Leveraging the World Population Prospects 2024 revision, which provides single‐year single‐age fertility indicators for 1950–2100, we reconstructed cohort fertility profiles for all countries. These data offer a unique opportunity to analyze cohorts that have completed childbearing and those entering reproductive ages, extending analyses beyond countries traditionally covered by the Human Fertility Database (HFD). Cohort measures were derived by transforming period age‐specific fertility rates into Lexis triangles and aggregating them into cohort parallelograms, following HFD methodology. Validation against observed cohort data confirmed high accuracy of our estimates. Results revealed that cohort fertility declines have been more gradual than period declines, with substantial regional heterogeneity. Europe and Northern America reached replacement‐level cohort fertility with the 1946 cohort, while sub‐Saharan Africa is projected to remain above 2.3 births per woman for the 2055 cohort. In low‐fertility countries, completed cohort fertility is projected to fall below 1.5 births for the 1983 cohort in many cases. These findings underscore the stability of cohort measures compared to period indicators and highlight their value for understanding long‐term fertility dynamics and informing demographic research and policy.