Research

Papers, preprints, data releases, and policy documents related to the indicators in this dataset, gathered daily and summarized by AI.

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Papercrossref-demography · 8/4/2026
The Influence of Societal Changes on the Contribution of Genetics to Fertility Behavior
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This study examines how major societal changes in Norway since the 1950s have influenced the heritability of fertility behaviors, specifically age at first birth and number of children, revealing that these effects vary by gender and outcome. While a theory attributing increased heritability to weakened norms and broader opportunities is found insufficient, results partially support the idea that genetic influence grows during periods of societal transition, particularly related to the rise of dual-earner families and family policy changes. The findings underscore the need to account for societal structures and gender differences when studying genetic contributions to fertility.

Abstract
Highlights The heritability of fertility behavior altered during the profound societal changes that occurred from the 1950s onward in Norway. Societal changes modify the heritability of age at first birth and number of children, and the change in heritability varies by gender and outcome. A theoretical explanation that suggests norms weakened and opportunities broadened across the latter part of the twentieth century and into the early twenty-first century, thereby increasing heritability, falls short. Results provide some support for the hypothesis that the importance of genes increases during periods of societal change, when linked to the transition to dualearner families and family policy implementation. The study highlights the importance of considering societal structures and gender differences when investigating genetic influences on fertility behavior.
NORfertility.tfrfertility.mac
Papercrossref-pdr · 5/28/2026
Changing Landscapes of Parenthood: Childbearing Among Same‐Sex and Different‐Sex Couples in the Nordic Countries
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This study uses harmonized register data from Denmark, Sweden, Norway, and Finland to examine trends in childbearing among female same-sex couples compared to different-sex couples following legal union, and how this varies by education and income. The findings show a sharp rise in childbearing among female same-sex couples, nearing parity with different-sex couples in Denmark, Sweden, and Norway by around 2010, while Finland showed a later and slower increase; higher education, but not income, was linked to greater likelihood of having a child. The authors attribute these shifts to legal changes and increasingly supportive cultural and normative environments that have made same-sex parenthood more attainable in the Nordic region.

Abstract
Abstract The Nordic countries of Denmark, Sweden, Norway, and Finland were among the first countries to acknowledge same‐sex couples’ partnership and parenthood rights in their legislation. We explore trends over time in the share of female same‐sex and different‐sex couples that have children following their legal union and variation by socioeconomic status. Using harmonized register data, we assess couples’ likelihood of having a child over time, with a focus on education and income. We find strong increases in female couples’ likelihood of having a child, resulting in a sharply increasing prevalence, approaching near parity with different‐sex couples in Denmark, Sweden, and Norway around 2010. Finland diverges from the other countries in terms of its later and less steep increase. Higher education is associated with a higher likelihood of having a child, whereas we find a less clear gradient by income level. The results suggest that legal changes, together with more supportive wider cultural and normative societal environments, have made same‐sex parenthood more achievable in the Nordic countries. These changes are concurrent with the observed increase in parenthood. Following this increase, female couples today are nearly as likely as different‐sex couples to have children within a legal union.
DNKSWENORFINfertility.tfr
Papercrossref-pdr · 5/22/2026
Health Influences on Second‐ and Third‐Birth Probabilities in Norway
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This study uses data from the Norwegian Mother, Father and Child Cohort Study (MoBa) and linked registers to examine how various maternal and child health factors relate to the probability and timing of having a second or third child. Findings show that chronic health problems before or during pregnancy, temporary pregnancy-related complications, adverse birth experiences, poor postnatal physical health, and postnatal depression are generally linked to reduced probabilities of subsequent births, while chronic health problems in the most recently born child show fewer consistent associations, except for reduced fertility among mothers whose child had colic or slept little. The authors discuss possible explanations and implications of these health–fertility associations.

Abstract
Abstract We examined how several health variables were associated with mothers’ probability of having a second or third child and the timing of the second birth. Data from the Norwegian Mother, Father and Child Cohort Study (MoBa) and linked registers were used. Parents with certain potentially chronic health problems before or in pregnancy were less likely than others to have an additional (especially a second) child, net of differences in relationship status, education, and economic resources. Some pregnancy‐related and largely temporary health problems during the most recent previous pregnancy and adverse birth experiences were associated with reduced probabilities of a second or third birth, or both, as was generally poor physical health six months after birth and postnatal depression. The latter health indicators may reflect health implications of pregnancy, delivery, and having a relatively “demanding” young child, as well as underlying health problems. Only a few estimates suggested associations between indicators of potentially chronic health problems of the most recently born child and subsequent fertility, but fertility was reduced among one‐child mothers whose first child had colic and among one‐ and two‐child mothers whose most recently born child slept little. Possible reasons for and implications of these health–fertility associations are discussed.
NORfertility.tfrfertility.mac
Papercrossref-demography · 2/19/2026
More Education and Fewer Children? The Contribution of Educational Enrollment and Attainment to the Fertility Decline in Norway
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This study uses Norwegian register data to examine how educational enrollment and attainment contributed to the country's rapid fertility decline in the 2010s among cohorts born 1964‒2006. Using counterfactual simulation, the authors find that educational expansion only partially explained cohort fertility decline for older female cohorts (1964‒1978) and did not contribute for men or younger cohorts; instead, the broader period and cohort fertility declines, especially rising childlessness among low and medium educated groups, were driven mainly by decreased fertility within educational levels rather than by increased education itself.

Abstract
Abstract Period fertility has declined rapidly in Norway in the 2010s, reaching record lows. Although there is a clear education‒fertility dynamic, significant educational shifts have occurred and it is unclear how much this contributed to recent fertility declines. To disentangle this, we utilize high-quality Norwegian register data and model yearly transitions between educational enrollment, educational attainment, and childbearing for men and women born in 1964‒2006. Using a counterfactual simulation approach, we explore the contribution of educational expansion versus lower fertility within educational groups to the decline in period and cohort fertility. Forecasting is used to complete fertility for cohorts aged 30+. We found that educational expansion contributed partially to the observed cohort fertility decline (2.11 to 1.98 children) for 1964‒1978 female cohorts but stagnated for younger cohorts. The predicted decline thereafter (to 1.59 children by the 1992 cohort), as well as the 2010s period fertility decline, was fully driven by decreased fertility across educational levels. For men, educational expansion was slower and did not contribute to fertility decline. For both genders, the contribution of changed fertility behavior was strongest among the low and medium educated, particularly for predicted ultimate childlessness. Our results suggest that increased education is not the main fertility barrier in contemporary Norway. Instead, falling birth rates, particularly among lower educated groups, are driving the fertility decline for both genders.
NORfertility.tfr