World
Latest estimates · UN 2024
Population projection
UN · release 2026.10.1 · codexpopuli.org
Licences: UN — CC BY 3.0 IGO
What forecasters project
Each forecaster’s central projection for the world, alongside earlier UN revisions. The newest vintage from each forecaster is shown; older revisions are in the legend.
Population: forecasters and earlier UN revisions
4 series: UN 2024 (2000–2100, latest 10.18B, projected); IHME 2020 (2017–2100, latest 8.79B, projected); UN 2022 (2021–2100, latest 10.35B, projected); WIC 2023 (2020–2100, latest 9.89B, projected).
UN · IHME · WIC · release 2026.10.1 · codexpopuli.org
Licences: UN — CC BY 3.0 IGO · IHME — IHME Free-of-Charge Non-Commercial User Agreement · WIC — Custom (IIASA/WIC, unconfirmed)
IHME 2020: Vollset SE, et al. Fertility, mortality, migration, and population scenarios for 195 countries and territories from 2017 to 2100: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study. The Lancet. 2020.
WIC 2013: Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (WIC), Wittgenstein Centre Data Explorer Version 1.0, 2013.
WIC 2018: Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (WIC), Wittgenstein Centre Data Explorer Version 2.0, 2018.
WIC 2023: Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (WIC), Wittgenstein Centre Data Explorer Version 3.0 (Beta), 2023.
IHME and WIC data shown with attribution for display only; not licensed for redistribution. IHME: non-commercial use only.
| Revision | 2050 | 2100 |
|---|---|---|
| UN 2010 | 9.31B | — |
| UN 2012 | 9.55B | 10.9B |
| WIC 2013 | 9.14B | 8.95B |
| UN 2015 | 9.73B | — |
| UN 2017 | 9.77B | — |
| WIC 2018 | 9.38B | 9.28B |
| UN 2019 | 9.74B | 10.9B |
| IHME 2020 | 9.55B | 8.79B |
| UN 2022 | 9.71B | 10.3B |
| WIC 2023 | 9.59B | 9.89B |
| UN 2024 (current) | 9.66B | 10.2B |
Revisions with no 2050 or 2100 value for the world are not listed.
Total fertility rate: forecasters and earlier UN revisions
4 series: UN 2024 (2000–2100, latest 1.84, projected); IHME 2020 (2017–2100, latest 1.66, projected); UN 2022 (2021–2100, latest 1.84, projected); WIC 2023 (2015–2095, latest 1.67, projected).
UN · IHME · WIC · release 2026.10.1 · codexpopuli.org
Licences: UN — CC BY 3.0 IGO · IHME — IHME Free-of-Charge Non-Commercial User Agreement · WIC — Custom (IIASA/WIC, unconfirmed)
IHME 2020: Vollset SE, et al. Fertility, mortality, migration, and population scenarios for 195 countries and territories from 2017 to 2100: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study. The Lancet. 2020.
WIC 2013: Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (WIC), Wittgenstein Centre Data Explorer Version 1.0, 2013.
WIC 2018: Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (WIC), Wittgenstein Centre Data Explorer Version 2.0, 2018.
WIC 2023: Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (WIC), Wittgenstein Centre Data Explorer Version 3.0 (Beta), 2023.
IHME and WIC data shown with attribution for display only; not licensed for redistribution. IHME: non-commercial use only.
| Revision | 2050 | 2100 |
|---|---|---|
| WIC 2013 | 1.94 | — |
| WIC 2018 | 1.93 | — |
| IHME 2020 | 1.87 | 1.66 |
| UN 2022 | 2.15 | 1.84 |
| WIC 2023 | 2.04 | — |
| UN 2024 (current) | 2.10 | 1.84 |
Revisions with no 2050 or 2100 value for the world are not listed. UN revisions from 1998 to 2019 publish fertility as five-year period averages (e.g. 2045–2050), with no single-year value; their paths are in the chart above. Wittgenstein Centre values are five-year period averages shown at the period's first year (2050 = 2050–2055).
Sources, licenses, and attribution for every forecaster are listed in the methodology.