Botswana · Global Demographics Data

This study examines Botswana's fertility trends from 2011 to 2023 using register data with universal coverage, finding that after a decade-long stall, fertility resumed declining toward replacement level. The analysis reveals growing heterogeneity in childbirth timing by education—highly educated women postpone first births while less educated women accelerate them—alongside a rising share of births to unmarried mothers. The author suggests Botswana's post-stall pattern may offer insight into how other stalled fertility transitions could progress.

Abstract

After almost a decade of stagnation, fertility in Botswana resumed declining and is approaching replacement level. Though fertility stalls are assumed to be temporary, most of the literature has focused on explaining their causes. Less is known about how fertility changes after a stall, and register data in Botswana presents an unprecedented opportunity to study post-stall fertility with universal coverage. Using descriptive analyses and a finite mixture modelling approach, I examine the trends in childbirth between 2011 and 2023. Results show that the timing of childbirth is becoming more heterogeneous and stratified. Highly educated women are postponing first births while less educated women are accelerating them. Most children are born to unmarried mothers, and this share has increased. Fertility trends in Botswana are largely comparable to other late-transition contexts, and it may serve as an illustrative case for how other stalled countries will continue their transitions.

BWA fertility.tfr fertility.births fertility.mac

Papercrossref-catchall · 7/23/2026

After the Stall: Botswana’s Resumed Fertility Decline

AI-generated summary

This study uses Botswana's universal register data (2011–2023) and finite mixture modelling to examine fertility trends following a decade-long stall, finding that childbearing timing is becoming more heterogeneous and stratified by education, with highly educated women postponing first births while less educated women accelerate them. It also notes a rising share of births to unmarried mothers, suggesting Botswana's post-stall trajectory resembles other late-transition contexts and may offer insights into how similarly stalled countries will resume their fertility transitions.

Abstract

After almost a decade of stagnation, fertility in Botswana resumed declining and is approaching replacement level. Though fertility stalls are assumed to be temporary, most of the literature has focused on explaining their causes. Less is known about how fertility changes after a stall, and register data in Botswana presents an unprecedented opportunity to study post-stall fertility with universal coverage. Using descriptive analyses and a finite mixture modelling approach, I examine the trends in childbirth between 2011 and 2023. Results show that the timing of childbirth is becoming more heterogeneous and stratified. Highly educated women are postponing first births while less educated women are accelerating them. Most children are born to unmarried mothers, and this share has increased. Fertility trends in Botswana are largely comparable to other late-transition contexts, and it may serve as an illustrative case for how other stalled countries will continue their transitions.

BWA fertility.tfr fertility.mac fertility.births

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