China
Population projection
What forecasters project
Each forecaster’s central projection for China, alongside earlier UN revisions. The newest vintage from each forecaster is shown; older revisions are in the legend.
Population: forecasters and earlier UN revisions
5 series: UN 2024 (2000–2100, latest 633M, projected); Census 2025 (2024–2100, latest 663M, projected); IHME 2020 (2017–2100, latest 732M, projected); UN 2022 (2021–2100, latest 767M, projected); WIC 2023 (2020–2100, latest 799M, projected).
| Revision | 2050 | 2100 |
|---|---|---|
| UN 2010 | 1.30B | — |
| UN 2012 | 1.38B | 1.09B |
| WIC 2013 | 1.26B | 754M |
| UN 2015 | 1.35B | — |
| UN 2017 | 1.36B | — |
| WIC 2018 | 1.30B | 812M |
| UN 2019 | 1.40B | 1.06B |
| IHME 2020 | 1.27B | 732M |
| UN 2022 | 1.31B | 767M |
| WIC 2023 | 1.31B | 799M |
| Census 2025 | 1.28B | 663M |
| UN 2024 (current) | 1.26B | 633M |
Revisions with no 2050 or 2100 value for China are not listed.
Total fertility rate: forecasters and earlier UN revisions
5 series: UN 2024 (2000–2100, latest 1.35, projected); Census 2025 (2024–2100, latest 1.20, projected); IHME 2020 (2017–2100, latest 1.47, projected); UN 2022 (2021–2100, latest 1.48, projected); WIC 2023 (2015–2095, latest 1.52, projected).
| Revision | 2050 | 2100 |
|---|---|---|
| WIC 2013 | 1.40 | — |
| WIC 2018 | 1.41 | — |
| IHME 2020 | 1.44 | 1.47 |
| UN 2022 | 1.39 | 1.48 |
| WIC 2023 | 1.39 | — |
| Census 2025 | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| UN 2024 (current) | 1.18 | 1.35 |
Revisions with no 2050 or 2100 value for China are not listed. UN revisions from 2010 to 2019 publish fertility as five-year period averages (e.g. 2045–2050), with no single-year value; their paths are in the chart above. Wittgenstein Centre values are five-year period averages shown at the period's first year (2050 = 2050–2055).
Sources, licenses, and attribution for every forecaster are listed in the methodology.