India

Many population projections used by international and government agencies assume that, in today's low-fertility societies, future fertility rates will stop declining and roughly stabilize. This paper assesses the evidence for an equilibrium point or rebound from low levels. We show that there is no robust evidence for a systematic fertility rebound, or for a stable equilibrium point at any fertility level conventionally assumed. Instead, where and when fertility has fallen low, it has tended to keep falling. This is true across a range of data sources, time periods, and fertility measures: United Nations data on period total fertility rates for all country-years from 1950 to 2023; Human Fertility Database data on completed fertility for cohorts born between 1935 and 1975 in 31 countries; and fertility rates in subnational geographies in Japan, India, and the United States. We reconcile these results with a prior literature that documented fertility reversals among some low-fertility countries in the early 2000s. Our findings provide an empirical basis for re-examining the equilibrium and rebound assumptions embedded in widely used population projections.

India's attainment of below-replacement fertility marks a major demographic milestone, yet it presents a paradox when viewed against international experience. In most countries that successfully harnessed a demographic dividend-particularly in East Asia and parts of Europe-fertility decline emerged alongside broad improvements in education, health, women's agency, labour-market opportunities, and structural economic transformation. In contrast, India's fertility transition was unusually rapid, compressed into a few decades, and was driven to a significant extent by state-led family-planning interventions, especially female sterilisation, rather than by comparable advances in human development. This divergence weakened the conventional linkage between fertility decline and socioeconomic transformation.

India has experienced a significant demographic and economic transformation since the early 1990s, driven by changes in population growth, fertility patterns, labour force expansion, and sustained economic development.This study examines the relationship between demographic transition and economic transformation in India during the period 1992-2025 using trends in population, fertility, labour force, and Gross Domestic Product.During the study period, India's population increased from 0.902 billion to 1.46 billion, while the total fertility rate declined from 3.9 to 2.0 births per woman, indicating a transition towards replacement-level fertility.Simultaneously, the labour force expanded from 0.324 billion to 0.617 billion, supporting higher productive capacity and economic growth.India's GDP also increased substantially from US$288.21 billion in 1992 to US$3960 billion in 2025, reflecting rapid structural transformation and economic progress.The analysis highlights that declining fertility and an expanding working-age population have created favourable conditions for a demographic dividend, while challenges such as employment generation, skill development, informal employment, and population ageing continue to influence long-term development.In conclusion, demographic transition has been a major contributor to India's economic transformation, and its long-term benefits depend on effective investment in human capital, productive employment, and inclusive policies that promote sustainable and balanced economic growth.