Japan
Population projection
What forecasters project
Each forecaster’s central projection for Japan, alongside earlier UN revisions. The newest vintage from each forecaster is shown; older revisions are in the legend.
Population: forecasters and earlier UN revisions
5 series: UN 2024 (2000–2100, latest 77M, projected); Census 2025 (2024–2100, latest 73M, projected); IHME 2020 (2017–2100, latest 60M, projected); UN 2022 (2021–2100, latest 74M, projected); WIC 2023 (2020–2100, latest 75M, projected).
| Revision | 2050 | 2100 |
|---|---|---|
| UN 2010 | 109M | — |
| UN 2012 | 108M | 84.5M |
| WIC 2013 | 107M | 74.7M |
| UN 2015 | 107M | — |
| UN 2017 | 109M | — |
| WIC 2018 | 107M | 77.4M |
| UN 2019 | 106M | 75.0M |
| IHME 2020 | 103M | 59.7M |
| UN 2022 | 104M | 73.6M |
| WIC 2023 | 106M | 75.0M |
| Census 2025 | 106M | 72.9M |
| UN 2024 (current) | 105M | 76.8M |
Revisions with no 2050 or 2100 value for Japan are not listed.
Total fertility rate: forecasters and earlier UN revisions
5 series: UN 2024 (2000–2100, latest 1.47, projected); Census 2025 (2024–2100, latest 1.70, projected); IHME 2020 (2017–2100, latest 1.32, projected); UN 2022 (2021–2100, latest 1.55, projected); WIC 2023 (2015–2095, latest 1.45, projected).
| Revision | 2050 | 2100 |
|---|---|---|
| WIC 2013 | 1.40 | — |
| WIC 2018 | 1.41 | — |
| IHME 2020 | 1.38 | 1.32 |
| UN 2022 | 1.47 | 1.55 |
| WIC 2023 | 1.37 | — |
| Census 2025 | 1.60 | 1.70 |
| UN 2024 (current) | 1.35 | 1.47 |
Revisions with no 2050 or 2100 value for Japan are not listed. UN revisions from 2010 to 2019 publish fertility as five-year period averages (e.g. 2045–2050), with no single-year value; their paths are in the chart above. Wittgenstein Centre values are five-year period averages shown at the period's first year (2050 = 2050–2055).
Sources, licenses, and attribution for every forecaster are listed in the methodology.