Codex Populi
Country · PRT

Portugal

10.4M
Population · 2023 · UN 2024
-0.00%
Growth rate · 2023 · UN 2024
1.51
Fertility rate · 2023 · UN 2024
82.4 yrs
Life expectancy · 2023 · UN 2024

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Research

Papercrossref-demographic-research4/20/2026

Winter life expectancy reduction in Europe

AI summaryThis study calculates Winter Life Expectancy Reduction (WLER) across 24 European countries using weekly mortality data from 2000-2019, introducing a novel model-based indicator that accounts for country-specific seasonal cycles. Results show WLER was generally higher in Europe than in a comparable US study, varying substantially by country and sex, with values ranging from 11 months (Finnish men) to 36 months (Portuguese women), and women typically experiencing higher WLER than men (European averages of 18 and 22 months, respectively).

Abstract

BACKGROUNDMortality is known to be higher in winter than in summer, with excess winter deaths ranging between 5% and 30% in Europe.A recent study conducted in the USA sought to quantify the excess winter mortality in terms of life expectancy reduction, by calculating the difference between summer and winter life expectancy. OBJECTIVESWe aimed to calculate Winter Life Expectancy Reduction (WLER) in Europe, illustrate the extent to which this indicator depends on definitions of summer and winter, introduce a novel indicator of WLER based on a statistical model accounting for country-specific seasonal cycles, and compare men and women in terms of WLER. METHODSWLER indicators were calculated from weekly mortality data in 24 European countries over the period 2000-2019. RESULTSOn average, WLER was a few months higher in Europe than in the USA, while depending heavily on country and sex, as well as the chosen indicator.Our model-based indicator measured the highest WLER values, ranging from 11 months (Finnish men) to 36 months (Portuguese women), with a European average of 18 months for men and 22 months for women.In most countries, WLER was higher for women than for men, regardless of the indicator used.