Africa

Abstract This study presents the first global dataset of fertility estimates and projections for cohorts of women born between 1935 and 2055. Leveraging the World Population Prospects 2024 revision, which provides single‐year single‐age fertility indicators for 1950–2100, we reconstructed cohort fertility profiles for all countries. These data offer a unique opportunity to analyze cohorts that have completed childbearing and those entering reproductive ages, extending analyses beyond countries traditionally covered by the Human Fertility Database (HFD). Cohort measures were derived by transforming period age‐specific fertility rates into Lexis triangles and aggregating them into cohort parallelograms, following HFD methodology. Validation against observed cohort data confirmed high accuracy of our estimates. Results revealed that cohort fertility declines have been more gradual than period declines, with substantial regional heterogeneity. Europe and Northern America reached replacement‐level cohort fertility with the 1946 cohort, while sub‐Saharan Africa is projected to remain above 2.3 births per woman for the 2055 cohort. In low‐fertility countries, completed cohort fertility is projected to fall below 1.5 births for the 1983 cohort in many cases. These findings underscore the stability of cohort measures compared to period indicators and highlight their value for understanding long‐term fertility dynamics and informing demographic research and policy.

Thursday, 12 March 2026 - 10:00am Overview Africa remains the youngest region in the world. According to the 2024 Revision of the World Population Prospects, average life expectancy at birth in Africa is approximately 64 years, below the global average. Fertility levels remain comparatively high in many countries, and pressing development priorities including poverty reduction, employment, health access and education, continue to shape national agendas.  At the same time, a quieter demographic shift is underway. Africa is undergoing a demographic transition marked by a steadily growing older population. While Sub-Saharan Africa remains at an earlier stage of ageing and Northern Africa at an intermediate stage, both sub-regions are projected to experience the fastest growth in the number of older persons globally over the next three decades.  The implications cut across multiple policy areas such as labour markets, informal employment, agriculture, income security, health systems, care arrangements and urban planning. Informal employment remains widespread, shaping income security in later life. Social protection coverage for older persons is expanding in several countries but remains uneven. Health systems are navigating a complex epidemiological landscape, addressing communicable diseases alongside a growing burden of non-communicable conditions.  In this context, ageing in Africa cannot be viewed in isolation. It intersects with employment, gender equality, disability inclusion, rural livelihoods, urbanization and human rights. It calls for informed, forward-looking policy dialogue, not because Africa is becoming “old,” but because demographic realities are evolving in ways that warrant attention.  The moment therefore calls for dialogue grounded in demographic evidence, aligned with continental and global frameworks, and attentive to the well-being, human rights and dignity of older persons.  Taking place at the margins of the seventieth session of the Commission on the Status of Women (CSW70), this event follows the Ministerial Round Table on accelerating the achievement of gender equality by addressing the empowerment of all older women, convened on 11 March. Building on that exchange, it brings forward demographic evidence and policy perspectives from across Africa, extending the discussion through a focused regional lens. In doing so, it aims to help translate commitments into context-responsive approaches and to contribute substantively to CSW70 deliberations on advancing the empowerment, rights and dignity of older women.  The session will serve as an awareness-raising and dialogue platform on the implications of demographic ageing in Africa. It will provide a timely opportunity to situate ageing within Africa’s broader development agenda and to highlight the ongoing fifth review and appraisal of the Madrid Plan of Action.  As an initial step, the event seeks to elevate visibility, strengthen shared understanding and lay the groundwork for future Pan-Africa Dialogue Series on Ageing and Development 2026.    Documents Concept note Flyer   Organization of work Thursday, 12 March 2026 10.00 am - 12.00 pm Video recording Welcome Amal Abou Rafeh, Chief of the Programme on Ageing, DESA Opening remarks Olubusayo Akinola, Head of Social Welfare, Drug Control and Crime Prevention Division, HHS, African Union Panel Discussion moderated by : Robin Fenley, Executive Committee, NGO Committee on Ageing in New York  Yumiko Kamiya, Focal Point on Ageing in DESA Population Division:  Latest demographic evidence from the 2024 World Population Prospects, including trends in ageing in Africa, analysis of living arrangements, and insights on the situation of older women and their policy implications .  Vijeth Iyengar, Director of Global Ageing at AARP:  Reflections from AARP’s recent international publication “The Journal”, highlighting in-depth exploration of two sub-Saharan African countries, Kenya and Tanzania, including breakthrough age related policies and practices emerging from East Africa .  Thiago Hérick de Sá, Technical Officer, WHO specializing in age-friendly environments:  Overview of WHO’s Age-Friendly Cities and Communities Network, including emerging engagement in the African region and upcoming Third Congress of Age-friendly Cities and Communities in Spain .  Dorothea Schmidt-Klau, Employment, Labour Markets and Youth Branch, ILO:  Perspectives on ageing and labour  markets in Africa, with a focus on informality, agriculture and the implications of demographic change for employment and productivity .  Rigbe Gebrehawaria Hagos, Human Rights Expert and Disability Rights Advocate, Ethiopia: Lived realities of older persons and persons with disabilities in Africa, and perspectives on State reporting under the African Protocol . Q&A    Closing remarks Reflections and Closing by moderator.     Categories:  Age distribution

Abstract Women who experience union disruption in sub‐Saharan Africa tend to have lower fertility than those in stable unions. It remains unclear, however, whether this pattern reflects lower fertility desires, constrained opportunities to achieve desired fertility, or both. Using Demographic Health Survey data from 34 countries, this study examines whether fertility differences between women in intact unions and those who experience marital dissolution are primarily driven by differences in family size ideals, unrealized fertility, or unwanted fertility. Results indicate that unrealized fertility is widespread and especially pronounced among women whose first unions ended, particularly those not in union. Although remarriage offers some fertility recovery, it rarely eliminates the reproductive disadvantage associated with union disruption. In contrast, women in intact first unions have higher levels of unwanted fertility across most countries, contributing to the fertility gap. Although women in intact unions have somewhat higher ideal numbers of children than women outside of unions, constrained realization of fertility goals emerges as the dominant factor explaining observed differences. Furthermore, women who experience union dissolution are more likely to revise their desires downward or express uncertainty about future childbearing. These findings underscore the importance of union trajectories in shaping fertility variation in sub‐Saharan Africa.