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The effect of political violence on fertility in mid-twentieth-century Estonia
AI summaryThis study examines how political violence during Soviet and German occupations of Estonia in the 1940s-50s affected fertility, using survey data on respondents' parents and biographical records of Estonian men in the Finnish army. Applying Poisson and logistic regression models, the authors find that severe repression—including death, imprisonment, deportation, and exile—reduced fertility among cohorts of childbearing age during this period, helping explain Estonia's lack of a post-war baby boom compared to First World countries.
Abstract
Estonia lost its independence during the Second World War, experiencing both Russian (1940-41, 1944-91) and German (1941-44) occupation, which brought significant political violence, particularly in the 1940s and 1950s. This paper analyses the effect of these repressions on fertility, using two studies. First, we use data collected between 1994 and 2005 from surveys that included extended questions on the lives of respondents' parents, including their experiences of repression. Second, we use biographical data on Estonian men who volunteered in the Finnish army. Applying Poisson and logistic regression models, we demonstrate that severe political repression (death, long-term imprisonment, deportation, and/or exile) reduced the fertility of cohorts who were in their prime childbearing ages during the 1940s and 1950s. We discuss these results in the wider context of the absence of a post-war baby boom in Estonia in contrast to those in countries that were part of the 'First World' during the Cold War.