South Korea
News
AI summarySouth Korea's rapid shift to a super-aged society has left little time to develop solutions for pension funding and elderly healthcare, offering lessons for other aging nations.
South Korea’s birth rate is rising – but the population is still shrinking
AI summarySouth Korea's birth rate is rising, but demographer Stuart Gietel-Basten explains on The Conversation Weekly podcast why the country's population continues to shrink overall.
Research
Love’s Fallout: Fertility Decline and the Individualization of Intimacy in South Korea
Population Changes and Emerging Challenges to Global Primary Education Provision
AI summaryThis study examines how divergent global demographic trends—continued population growth in poorer countries versus population scarcity in wealthier ones—create polarizing pressures on primary education systems, even as child-teacher ratios have generally narrowed worldwide. Using Korea as a case study of extreme population decline, the authors show that educational consolidation is shaped by geospatial and political dynamics, with policy decentralization and local resistance limiting school and teacher losses in nonmetropolitan areas while metropolitan areas gained resources despite falling student numbers. The paper calls for more research into how national education systems respond to both growth and scarcity in school-age populations.
Abstract
Abstract Global demographic changes in recent decades have sharply altered the contexts in which governments provide education. Focusing on primary education, we demonstrate, first, that recent demographic trends have been highly polarizing for education systems worldwide. Persistent expansionary pressures burden some of the least‐resourced educational systems, whereas these pressures are reversing in wealthier countries with higher educational expenditures. Second, we document that global educational systems have adapted to narrow gaps in student‐ or child‐teacher ratios, despite polarizing demographic trends. Third, we show that system responses vary where school‐age cohorts are declining, although little is known about the impacts of system responses. And, finally, examining Korea, a case at the leading edge of the transition to population scarcity, we demonstrate that educational system consolidation can introduce new salience to geospatial hierarchies and the political economy of allocative decisions. Policy decentralization and popular resistance stymied a trend in which nonmetropolitan areas bore the brunt of primary school closures and teacher losses, while metropolitan areas saw increases in schools and teachers despite student declines. Research is sorely needed to understand how national educational systems are impacted by and adapting to the disparate forces of population growth and scarcity.
AI summaryThis study analyzes South Korean first marriage trends from 1993 to 2023 using national vital statistics to disentangle structural decline from timing (tempo) effects, employing measures like TFMR, PPEM, and tempo-adjusted PPEM* separately for men and women. Results show a sustained structural retreat from marriage among women, while men exhibit greater sensitivity to timing shifts, with a temporary pandemic-driven convergence in 2020 linked to a drop in international marriages. The paper extends tempo-adjusted analysis to nuptiality, contributing new insights into marriage decline within East Asia's ultra-low fertility context.
Abstract
BACKGROUNDIn South Korea, where most births occur within marriage, the country's record-low fertility has put renewed attention on the long-term decline in first marriage.Despite rising policy and academic interest, systematic demographic analyses that disentangle structural and timing components of nuptiality change remain limited, especially in East Asia. OBJECTIVEThis study examines trends in the quantum and timing of first marriage in South Korea from 1993 to 2023 and assesses whether the decline reflects structural retreat, postponement, or both. METHODSUsing legally registered marriage data from the national vital statistics system, we construct three period indicators: the total first marriage rate (TFMR), the period proportion ever married (PPEM), and a tempo-adjusted PPEM (PPEM*).We estimate the never-married population using age-specific proportions from the census, applied to mid-year resident registration data.All indicators are calculated separately for men and women. RESULTSBoth TFMR and PPEM declined markedly over three decades.Among women, PPEM and PPEM* showed parallel trajectories, indicating a structural retreat from marriage.Among men, PPEM fluctuated more sharply, and its widening gap with PPEM* after 2015 reveals stronger tempo effects.The temporary convergence in 2020 reflects compositional change due to a sharp fall in international marriages during the pandemic. CONCLUSIONSThe findings reveal a sustained decline in first marriage for both sexes, with men showing lower levels and greater sensitivity to timing shifts and external disruptions. CONTRIBUTIONBy extending tempo-adjusted analysis to first marriage, this study offers new insights into nuptiality decline in East Asia's ultra-low fertility context.